Torre to the Dodgers?

If this is true, then I have to believe that right now, poor Scott Proctor is crying quietly, clutching his right shoulder, and rocking himself to sleep.

Good Riddance

Strange feelings abound with regard to Alex Rodriguez this morning.

Before he arrived in the Bronx, I had no love for the man. I, like many, thought he was a sublimely-talented mercenary and an amazingly egotistical a-hole to boot. My gut reaction when they first picked him up was not completely positive.

But much like Johnny Damon, I got over my loathing once he put on the pinstripes, because – as we’ve discussed before in this space – when you root for a sports team, you’re basically rooting for laundry. It took some getting used to, sure, but it helps to win two MVPs in four years.

Now that he appears to be leaving for Chicago, Boston or the West Coast, I have to say I’m not as disappointed as maybe I should be.

That’s not to say I’m happy to see him go. I was looking forward to watching ARod chase down the all-time milestones in a Yankee uniform, and to be honest, a sappy part of me was looking forward to the classical stage-play that might have been: ARod conquers his legitimate need for validation, and his rocky relationship with the media and fans, to adopt his rightful place on the throne of the greatest sports empire known to man. Like Aragorn, or something.

And his direct on-field contributions will be missed, of course. While I’m not convinced he would have repeated his amazing 2007, he still will be worth a good 5-6 wins above average over the next few years at least. As such, the Yanks are probably looking at an 85-90 win season next year, barring additional moves.

However, there is a hell of a silver lining around this dark cloud.

For one thing, the Yankees have now freed up a chunk of change for next year and beyond. They had been talking about a $200 million commitment, for a guy who is already 32. That’s money that will be put to good use signing free agents, draftees, or international players – and paying a superstar almost $30 million when he’s 40 isn’t my idea of good use (hello Roger!). Let somebody else saddle themselves with that kind of financial commitment (I will also say this here: if the Sox sign him, they REALLY, TRULY lose all claim to this “underdog” fantasy, and that’s the end of that, yes? Not that I actually think they'll do it - I'm just sayin').

For another thing: while it was easy to overlook ARod’s flaws when he was hitting bombs into the black bleachers in centerfield, the reality of it is, he was never really likable. I wanted him to be likable, and I think he wanted to be likable, but he never got there – maybe because he felt he had to compete with Jeter, maybe not. Who knows. But it wasn’t always easy to root for him (much like Giambi, in a different way). He has this habit of saying these incredibly-egotistical-yet-so-clearly-insecure-and-defensive things. For whatever reason, ARod (and wife) were at times an obnoxious circus, and when he takes his home runs, he’ll also take that side of the ARod experience. Not a bad thing.

Finally, I don’t think losing his contribution necessarily hurts the team as much as it appears. The Yankees offense was nuclear last year with ARod, but take him away and they still have a good lineup. And with the continued growth of the young pitching already on the roster, and the farm system starting to really produce, I think you can see how those extra 6-7 wins ARod would provide can be cobbled together – and cobbled together the right way, with pitching. They’ll still be a good team – and with better pitching, they may even be better geared towards postseason success. Just floating that thought out there.

The irony is, ARod makes noise about wanting to win a title, but he just left a team that’s getting set up to make a nice run at multiple titles in the very near future. His loss.

So, the reality is that there are lots of things I’m going to miss with ARod gone – but there are lots of thing I’m definitely not going to miss. It feels like I'm getting an old enemy back - the ARod I used to love to hate. I hope the Steinbrothers stick to their guns and don’t negotiate with the son of a gun, and use that money to re-sign Posada and Mariano and rebuild a team that has the pitching to contend in 2009, if not sooner. Yankeeland need not be worried.

So long, ARod. I guess everyone was right about you. Thanks for the memories, and don’t let the door hit ya where the good lord split ya.

"Likable, in spite of himself"

Will Leitch has a mildly amusing piece in the NY Times today about MLB's most likable pitcher, Curtis Schilling. HA...did you see that? Sarcasm.

Leitch manages to compare Schilling to 1) Eddie Haskell from Leave it to Beaver, 2) a monorail salesman, and 3) Roger Dorn from Major League. Yep, that about sums Schilling.

Anyway, last night's performance against the Rockies was great; not brilliant or spectacular, but really good. And hopefully, his last.

Thanks Curt. Great job. Thanks for the wins and ring (soon to be rings). Now get the hell out.

Please, go. Tip your hat and walk off into the cornfield.

I can't pinpoint exactly what it is about I dislike so much about Schilling -- the egotism, the holier-than-thou attitude, the fact that if he cared to read this blog he'd respond in more words than all my posts combined -- but I need him to go. Boston needs him to go.

That's all. Just had to get that off my chest.

Pot, Meet Kettle

This cartoon from the Hardball Times says it all.

It's like John Travolta (with Nic Cage's face) fighting Nic Cage (with John Travolta's face) in FaceOff. Kinda.

No Wake

The Boston Globe reports that Tim Wakefield is off the Sox WS roster due to a "posterior shoulder" shoulder injury.

While I don't think it's going hurt the Sox's chances (with Jon Lester available if they need him), it will still be sad not to see the ol'knuckleballer out there...even sadder to think that his possible last game with the Red Sox was one where he came apart against the Indians (5 runs in 4.2 innings).

Most commentators will tell you that a knuckleballer can pitch forever, but at the end of this season Wake has really been showing his age, and there is talk he may retire.

I'd love to see him pitch until he's 60, but we may have seen the last of Timothy Stephen Wakefield.

Photo by cackhanded.

McGwire and the Hall

To follow on our stream of Hall of Fame posts, I will attempt to tackle the over-debated question of whether Mark McGwire deserves to be voted in. For the sake of argument, I will run Big Mac through the Keltner list first, and then address the steroids question.

Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball? He was never a complete enough talent to qualify as the best in baseball. He was, rightly, considered the best power hitter in the game during much of the 1990s.

Was he the best player on his team? Between 1987, his rookie year, and 1991, teammate Jose Canseco was better. Plus there were Rickey Henderson and some great pitchers, though we shouldn’t hold that against McGwire. Once Jose and Rickey left, and before Giambi came along, McGwire was pretty much the only thing Oakland had going. Then he led the Cardinals in those pre-Pujols/Edmonds/Rolen years.

Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position? I’d say so. Rafael Palmeiro was a better all around hitter, but ironically – well I don’t need to comment further.

Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races? He was a reason the A’s made the playoffs in 88, 89, 90, and 92.

Was he a good enough player that he could continue to play regularly after passing his prime? It’s interesting that he retired as soon as he passed his peak. He could have kept playing, hit 17 more home runs and finished with 600, but I think he deserves respect for not dragging it out. His peak also came right before his steep decline.

Is he the very best player in baseball history who is not in the Hall of Fame? It’s not unreasonable to think so. He’s certainly the most famous player, and the player with the highest ranking in significant statistics.

Are most players who have comparable career statistics in the Hall of Fame? BP compares him to the following:

Jim Thome
Jose Canseco
Carlos Delgado
Harmon Killebrew *
Willie McCovey *
Jason Giambi
Juan Gonzalez
Norm Cash
Dave Kingman
Manny Ramirez

A few hall of famers, a few with a chance in the future, and a few who won’t make it but who certainly had great seasons.

Do the player's numbers meet Hall of Fame standards? He retired with the sixth most career home runs, then has slipped to eighth. He’s top 10 in slugging percentage, 11^th in OPS, but nothing else screams Cooperstown.

Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics? I think the numbers paint an accurate picture.

Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame but not in? Yes.

How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close? Never won it. Sosa’s god-like 1998 season edged out McGwire’s own. He also came close in 1999, 1992 and his rookie season, 1987. A low batting average consistently took votes away from him.

How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? 12 appearances. He missed most of 1993 and 1994, but was one of the top first basemen every other year.

Did most of the other players who played in this many go to the Hall of Fame? Without actually checking, I’m going to assume yes.

If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant? He was almost the best on Oakland in 1988-1990 and they dominated those years, so I’d say hypothetically, yes.

What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way? He helped establish the long-ball era. 70 in 1998 speaks for itself. On a negative note, he had a ton of impact on the steroids debate.

Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?

Here we go. From what I’ve just laid out, it’s pretty clear that the numbers aren’t keeping Mac out of the HoF. Even if he was a one-dimensional player, a slow-footed slugger, he was the best one that ever played. And admit it, we all love the long ball.

If we compare McGwire to everything that happened in Major League history before 2001, his last season, his numbers stand up. One problem that arises is that in the next 15 years, a number of people are going to retire who have stats that blow away Mac’s. 600 home runs might not only be the new 500, it could be the new 400.

McGwire only received 23 percent of the vote in his first chance, needing 75 to make it. The question is whether the sportswriters proved their point the first time: they don’t like players who might have used steroids. That’s a point that will come up a lot in the years to come.

Royal Rooters Cheer!

"Up from Third Base to Huntington
They'd sing another victory song..."

Distracted Much?

True or not, I wonder what impact this Paul Byrd-HGH thing will have on the Cleveland locker room tonight. Given it's Game 7, you gotta figure they're pretty focused.

On the story linked above, there's ANOTHER link that takes you to a long article about Paul Byrd and his faith. It's a very good, very candid interview, but at one time he mentions the temptation to take steroids. He also, in a sort've roundabout way, lays some of the blame on God for what sounds like an apparent porn addiction, which is....strange.

HoF 2008: Pass

What a sorry bunch of players who ended their careers in 2002. Five years later, here is a list of players eligible for the Hall of Fame next year for the first time:

Luis Alicea, Brady Anderson, Alex Arias, Rod Beck, Andy Benes, Mike Benjamin, Dennis Cook, Delino DeShields, Shawon Dunston, Chuck Finley, Darrin Fletcher, Travis Fryman, Rich Garcés, Chris Haney, Dave Hollins, Bobby J. Jones, David Justice, Chuck Knoblauch, Tom Lampkin, Darren Lewis, Mike Magnante, Dave Mlicki, Mike Morgan, Robb Nen, Hipólito Pichardo, Tim Raines, Armando Reynoso, Henry Rodríguez, Lee Stevens, Todd Stottlemyre, Greg Swindell, Mike Trombley, John Valentin, Randy Velarde, Ed Vosberg, and Mark Wohlers.

Tim Raines hit .294 over his long career and stole a lot of bases, though most seasons he was simply an above-average player.

David Justice was a very good player on a number of good teams, but rarely could one consider him among the best in any given year.

Rob Nen was a lights-out closer for the last seven years of his career. However, to make it to Cooperstown you need to be the best closer for more than a decade.

If any player gets selected in 2008 it will be from the 2007 carry-over list:

Harold Baines
Bert Blyleven
Dave Concepción
Andre Dawson
Rich "Goose" Gossage
Tommy John
Don Mattingly
Mark McGwire
Jack Morris
Dale Murphy
Dave Parker
Jim Rice
Lee Smith
Alan Trammell

The News on Torre

Do we believe the reports that Joe Torre turned down a one year contract worth $5-8 million to return to the Yankees? Here’s why I don’t think it makes sense.

As it was reported, Torre took a meeting to entertain an offer from the Yankees. He was offered $5 million base, $6 million for making the playoffs, which is basically a sure thing, $7 million for making the ALDS, and $8 million for making the World Series – and if you don’t manage the Yanks to either round, you just don’t deserve $7 or $8 million.

So would Torre have accepted the job if the offer were more generous? Probably not, so why would he have entertained offers in the first place?

I think it’s to give the impression that he’s rejecting the Yankees’ front office, not the other way around, which would have been much harder for fans to stomach.

Moose and Hall

I love Moose. I love that he's a cranky, eccentric weirdo, I love that he's got that unorthodox stretch, I love that he gets along with the coaches better than the players, and I love that he battles even though he's lost his best stuff. I don't love that contract, but c'est la vie.

I'm not sure if Mike Mussina is coming back or not, but either way I don't think it will have much of an impact on his Hall of Fame case at this point. Given that, I thought I'd run him through one of my favorite things ever: the Keltner List (I did this with Biggio here; read more about the list itself here). This is the most fun when it's an aging, borderline player like Moose.

Onward!

1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball? Definitely no to the first, and probably no to the second, though sportswriters are known to have said dumb things.

2. Was he the best player on his team? I think we can say he was probably the best player on his team in 1992, and he might have been the best in 2001. In his peak he played alongside Juice Palmeiro, Albert Belle, Bernie Williams, Robbie Alomar, and many other elite players, so 1992 is probably the only year.

3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position? He was probably the best pitcher in the AL in 2001 (sorry Roger). Otherwise, he was never the single best in any year. However, he was one of the best-fielding pitchers in the Majors for years, so that's worth something.

4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races? Definitely. He of course pitched for playoff teams with the Orioles and Yankees with a number of gems in the clutch, and here’s a stat that impressed me: Moose’s Sept/Oct regular season ERA is 2.84, in about 550 innings. That’s the lowest ERA of any month over the course of his career. That tells you he’s risen to the occasion plenty.

5. Was he a good enough player that he could continue to play regularly after passing his prime? More or less. His prime basically ended after 2003, but he was essentially league average for a couple of injury-plagued years before a nice resurgence in 2006 due to an altered approach. This year he bit it.

6. Is he the very best player in baseball history who is not in the Hall of Fame? I don't think so.

7. Are most players who have comparable career statistics in the Hall of Fame? Here’s the list of comparable players, according to BR. It reads like a list from the Hall of the Very Good, but not the Hall of Fame for the most part (asterisk means HoF):
Juan Marichal *
Kevin Brown
Curt Schilling
David Wells
Dwight Gooden
Clark Griffith *
Bob Welch
Orel Hershiser
David Cone
Catfish Hunter *

8. Do the player's numbers meet Hall of Fame standards? I don’t think so. He’s 45^th in career wins, 22^nd in strikeouts, and 84^th in both adjusted ERA+ and innings pitched. He has about 255 career Win Shares, which is a little more than Schilling and a little less than Smoltz. With counting stats like that, you really need a dominant peak like Marichal, which Mussina never had.

9. Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics? None that comes to mind. He pitched in a very offensive era, but there were still pitchers who put up HOF numbers.

10. Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame but not in? Nope.

11. How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close? For a pitcher, I translate this to mean Cy Young, and he did have a few Cy Young-type years. He probably should have won in 2001, and if he had won in 1992 I don’t think anyone could have complained, but that's really it.

12. How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the other players who played in this many go to the Hall of Fame? He had a number of All Star-type years and went to five All-Star games. I don’t see what this has to do with anything though, since it’s all a popularity contest.

13. If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant? I’d say so, yes.

14. What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way? Outside of being a touch eccentric, no.

15. Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider? He seems to alternate between clubhouse leader and whiner. Push.

Granted, he could come back next year and suddenly reel off a few more All-Star years somehow - he's a crafty pitcher, and if anyone can find a way to hang on and be effective after losing his stuff, it's Moose. If he does that, it totally enhances his HoF case, perhaps definitively. But I think it's entirely unlikely.

Moose is a very good pitcher, with several strong years and a couple truly elite years – but to my way of thinking, that’s not the profile of a Hall of Fame player. Sorry Mike.

Slappy McWho???

Check out last night's post on NoMaas, with the video clip of Dustin Pedroia trying to slap the ball out of Victor Martinez's glove in the first inning.

I don't ever want to hear Sox Nation ripping on ARod for his 2004 "slap play" again. Bush league, indeed.

IPK is A-OK

Meet your Minor League Pitcher of the Year: The Yanks' very own Sir Ian Patrick Kennedy, Esquire.

(Apparently this was written a while ago, even though it's dated yesterday: "[Kennedy] is expected to travel with the Yankees during the American League Divisional Series. If the Bombers reach the AL Championship series, the hope is that Kennedy will be well enough to be activated." Screw you too, MiLB.com!)

And I really can't believe the Rox are in the NLCS right now. That's just crazy. Francis pitched a hell of a game last night too.

Oakland Offseason Needs

The excellent MLB Trade Rumors site is doing a series of summaries on each major league team's needs and assets this offseason, and the first post was about the A's. This is about a month old. They haven't gotten to the Sox or the Yanks yet, but it looks like they're doing one every few days.

Pudge: "I'm Rich! And Old! And Rich!"

So yesterday, Detroit decided to pick up Pudge’s $13 million option.

Pudge is a 35-year-old catcher who drew nine walks in 500 at-bats. Defensively he’s seems fine – not the beast he used to be, but still above-average for now – but offensively he’s a dud. He couldn’t even crack a .300 on-base percentage last year! Yet the Tigers decided he’s worth $13 mil.

Why should we care? Posada is a free agent now; Varitek is a free-agent after 2008. Posada is very clearly a superior catcher to Pudge, even if you expect him to come back to earth next year (which I do). Varitek is still better than Pudge too, especially with the bat, and has additional clubhouse value as the captain.

In a world where Pudge gets that kind of loot, I’d hate to think what these other aging backstops are going to get.

Meanwhile, Oakland is playing a 23-year-old catcher - making the major league minimum? - who may well outplay Pudge and Tek next year, and Posada in another year thereafter. Terrific.

The Long Look Back

Some idle thoughts on this, the morning after.

I don’t feel so bad about the playoff loss this year, for the simple fact that they looked horrible - HORRIBLE - to start the year. I don’t know who coined the phrase a “moral victory,” but simply making the playoffs sure felt like one of those.

I’m disappointed with October’s outcome, but still thrilled that we got to see it in the first place. This was a historic charge to the postseason no matter which way you look at it - making posts like this and this all the more ridiculous. (By the way, Owen: do Red Sox Fans really have Yankee Elimination Parties?? How you put up with these people is beyond me.)

The loss came down to pitching, as it has for the last few years. We didn’t have the guys to make the outs, and when we did, they didn’t execute. Wang and the backend bullpen guys crapped the bed, Clemens was hurt, Carmona and the Tribe ‘pen were buzzsaws, and Jorge and other hitters pulled their annual disappearing act against playoff-caliber pitching.

As much as I love watching a team that’s bombs-away during the regular season, it’s annoying when the playoffs roll around and they consistently have the worst pitching staff of the contenders.

Of course, that’s going to change sooner rather than later. For one thing, Phil Hughes’ performance in game 3 is the stuff of legends. He’s been steadily coming back from that injury, and what we saw this postseason is emblematic of the “real” Hughes. He snapped off a couple curves that looked downright filthy, along with good velocity and location on his fastball. And I forgave Joba for blowing game 2 in about ten minutes.

I feel good about keeping ARod; I don’t feel so good about keeping Pettitte. Losing him would be pretty big, even with the Three Aces set up in the rotation next year.

While I think Torre makes frequent and fatal tactical errors, and I think it’s time for a change, I’ll still be sad to see him go. Another pillar of a bygone era out the door.

Steinbrenner needs to shut his trap, although to be honest, I’m not entirely convinced he still has the power to dictate what the team does about Torre. The Yankee organization is in surprisingly good shape; if Steinbrenner was in charge, this would not be the case.

Let's go Rockies.

Pitchers & Catchers in 127 days.

Hypothesize This

Wang
Pettitte
Hughes
Chamberlain
Kennedy

See you in '08.

A Thousand Words

This may not say it all, but it says a lot. Let the off-season hypothesizing begin.

Left Out

So Torre is taking the Yankees into the playoffs without any lefties in the bullpen and five of them in the starting lineup.

They're going up against a guy who has held left-handed hitters to a paltry .203 BA.

Cleveland has only three LHPs in their starting lineup (Hafner, Sizemore and Lofton), and Lofton hits considerably better against RHPs (.223 vs LHPs, .313 vs RHPs).

Given that this is most likely going to be a very tight series, how much is the righty/lefty situation going be a deciding factor?

Cancel Those Elk "Juice" Orders

At least we're not the only idiots.

Holliday Missed the Plate!

What's worse: blowing a seven-game lead with 17 to play, or losing a playoff tie-breaker on a bad call?

As I survey the landscape after a crazy NL stretch run, my sympathies are definitely in San Diego and Queens. But moreso San Diego.

Yes, Hoffman was getting slapped around like a cheap hooker, and even if Holliday is called out, there's no guarantee that Hoffman escapes without allowing another run in that thin air. And to rewind a bit, maybe they had no business taking it to extra innings anyway, after Peavy - who might have been the best pitcher in baseball for 162 games - essentially crapped the bed.

The Mets had no one else to blame for their collapse. But for an entire season to come down to a blown call...that is truly gut-wrenching. My condolences, Pads. And to Hoffman: you deserve better.

Addendum: In lighter news, here's an awesome quote from Kevin Millar about ARod:

"When is he just going to say, 'I'm the baddest [dude] out there?' " Orioles first baseman Kevin Millar says. " 'I hit .320 with 40 and 130 RBIs, every [stupid] year, and what about it?' What is anyone going to say to that? Nobody can challenge him in this game because nobody else is that good. He spent a lot of time trying to be liked. I just want him to say, 'Don't [mess] with me, because none of you [guys] can do what I do.' That's all he has to do, 'cause he's a straight-up gangster."

Addendum II: I guess I should amend my earlier comment: The Mets have no one to blame but themselves and Dan.