November 29, 2007

The Arms Race

What is Johan Santana worth?

Is one great pitcher at his prime worth two really good young pitchers with potential greatness plus a dynamic, run-producing center-fielder plus a more-than-Zito-esque contract?

The Red Sox and Yankees are asking the exact same question...and one of them is going to say yes.

The Sox and Yanks are again locked in to their perennial game of keep-away. "If we don't get him, they will," each team says. It is the Cold War arms race of Baseball with each team stock-piling nukes, waiting for that final Armageddon that is the 2008 ALCS.

But when you step back, it all seems so foolish. Please allow a moment of prognostication: with their current teams, The Sox and Yanks will be the Divisional Champions and AL Wildcard next year, and probably for the next three after that. The other divisions are weak: Detroit is collapsing, and will continue to do so; Seattle and Oakland are rebuilding; and the Angels and Indians will dominate their respective divisions...

...unless, of course, you give the Twins two potential aces and another crackerjack outfielder (all of whom have really cheap contracts, thus allowing them to spend big on free-agents next year, btw) and let them throw the Wildcard race back up in the air.

Going back to the war analogy, why invest in the mother-of-all-bombs by trading away your arsenal of tactical nukes ready that are more than capable of taking out the enemy? What if that bomb turns out to be a dud?

November 23, 2007

Bonds Legal Answers

Good Lord, have I been busy with work and turkey-eating. Sorry for the silence.

But thought I'd share this: The Hardball Times has posted an extraordinarily helpful Q&A to help clarify some details and questions surrounding the Bonds case. The author is a criminal attorney and Baseball Prospectus contributor. Nearly as insightful as the excellent previous post.

November 20, 2007

Barry Bonds: A Giants Fan Looks Back

The following post was submitted by Matt Schiavenza, a Giants fan living in Kunming, China.

The recent indictment of Barry Bonds for perjury and obstruction of justice seemed to provoke two clear reactions among the nation’s baseball fans: glee and sadness. For a taste of the former, check out this piece by long-time Bonds critic Tom Verducci on SI.com. More thoughtful pundits, such as ESPN’s venerable Peter Gammons, noted sadly how such a fine career will forever be tainted by the fallout of steroid use.

That Bonds is unpopular around the country is old news. Even before the steroid allegations began, Bonds was infamous for his surly, arrogant demeanor both on and off the field. Opposing fans hated his casual stroll on home runs, or his sometimes lackadaisical approach on the bases. Critics faulted the Giants for giving their star so much leeway, allowing an entourage to accompany him everywhere and permitting Bonds to put a comfortable chair in front of his spread of lockers. In baseball, the ultimate team sport, Bonds stood apart: year after year he refused to be included in the Giants’ team photographs and even requested late in his career not to be put into a game as a pinch hitter. To journalists, Bonds was surly and abrupt when he deigned to speak with them at all.

After the revelation that Bonds took steroids became national news, fans around the league transferred some of their animus toward Bonds to that of his team, the San Francisco Giants. Rather than cutting ties with the tainted player, the Giants kept Bonds employed and insisted on celebrating his on-field accomplishments. Giants fans cheering every Bonds home run were derisively referred to as “brainwashed” in the national media, as if somehow the famous San Francisco fog somehow obscured our ability to see the truth. The Giants’ recent slide into mediocrity was viewed as comeuppance by many fans for failing to reign in our drug-laden superstar.

To risk stating the obvious, of course Giants fans had a different perception of Bonds. While the nation only saw his magnificent water-bound home runs, we saw the slugger as the epitome of the complete baseball player, an almost underappreciated force despite his huge national exposure. Until the past few seasons, Bonds was perhaps the greatest defensive left fielder in major league history. No player was better at playing balls off the left field fence and holding players to a single. Bonds’ arm was never strong, but always accurate. In 2004, during a tie game against the Atlanta Braves, I saw Bonds gun home the go-ahead run in the top of the 9th inning and then hit a game-winning home run on the first pitch of his next at-bat. For us, we were used to such heroics, but only in retrospect have we appreciated how Bonds could almost single-handedly win a baseball game.

Bonds was also, for much of his career, a tremendous baserunner. He was rarely thrown out on the basepaths and always enjoyed high stolen base success rates. Unlike several other players lauded for their hustle, Bonds never injured himself with an ill-advised slide. In fact, he was remarkably healthy during the duration of his time in San Francisco.

Even his reputation as a bad teammate could be called into question. Several of Bonds’ former teammates, such as Marquis Grissom, credited him with helping their approaches at the plate. One teammate of Bonds’ (I forget who) recounted how he sat next to the star in the dugout and listened with astonishment as Barry accurately predicted every single pitch. Bonds was a complete hitter with a masterful eye. He rarely swung at bad pitches and could always work a walk. Bonds was dangerous against lefties and righties, groundball and flyball pitchers, junkballers and fastballers. He would quickly remedy any weakness in his approach at the plate and thus was rarely vulnerable to extended slumps.

Of course, the big question surrounding Bonds is how much his use of steroids affected his performance on the field. These questions are impossible to quantify, yet that hasn’t stopped several nationally known sportswriters from trying. One can certainly assume that Bonds would not have hit as many home runs without chemical assistance, and his body likely recovered much faster from the ravages afflicting any aging ballplayer.

Yet even the most ardent Bonds hater would have to admit that he was far from the only player on the juice. Jose Canseco, an unapologetic steroid user, estimated that nearly half of his teammates during his career used performance enhancing drugs. Baseball’s history is littered with tales of cheating, from spitballs to greenies and sign stealing and game fixing. For professional ballplayers, the incentives have long been there. Bonds was hardly the only one to cave into the pressure, but as the game’s highest-profile user he was poised to take the greatest fall.

As a diehard Giants fan, I’m more than a little saddened by the events that have transpired. Bonds is no innocent victim, and in the end he was felled by the arrogance that has defined his whole career. But, for a moment, consider the effect Bonds had on both the Giants and the city of San Francisco. Before Bonds arrived, in 1992, the Giants were a bad team in a bad stadium all but certain to move to Tampa Bay. Without Bonds, the Giants would never have engendered the necessary support to build beautiful AT&T Park. Without Bonds, the Giants never would have strung together eight consecutive winning seasons or come six outs from winning the World Series. Bonds helped restore pride in an organization that had long taken a back seat to its hated rival, the Los Angeles Dodgers. For several years as his soaring home runs splashed into McCovey Cove, the Giants were the biggest game in town, a perennial winner only a Rally Monkey could prevent from capturing the World Series. And while it has ended badly, and the Giants are back to their former studied mediocrity, I hope you can understand why fans like myself do not feel guilty for indulging in fifteen years of wonderful baseball memories.

November 14, 2007

Um, What?

No time to post anything substantial, but Yankeeland, reports are FLYING from writers at Fox, NY Daily News, along with Mike Lupica, John Sterling, and what seems to be an army of "anonymous sources" that ARod is meeting/has met/is talking through intermediaries (Reggie Jackson??) with the Steinbrothers behind-the-scenes, and that apparently a multi-year deal worth $27 mil per is in the works/being discussed/almost finished/done. This story was practically non-existent and/or laughable yesterday.

I'm taking it all with a BIG grain of salt, but I had to point out this statement on ARod's own site today, by way of River Ave Blues. He basically admits, out front, that he's got "mutual friends" talking to the Yankees.

Is this anything more than a monumental PR/negotiating tactic engineered by The Boras? I don't know what to think. But things have gotten interesting in the Empire all of a sudden.

UPDATE: From Hank Steinbrenner: "“He reached out to us through a third party. He has expressed a desire to stay a Yankee. He’s even willing to make certain sacrifices to do so.” Wowzers.

November 7, 2007

Six Armed Monstah

With Schilling and Wakefield back on board for 2008, there has been talk that the Sox might go with a six pitcher rotation.

I am torn by the prospect of this.

On one hand, it helps the too-old/too-young problem that the Sox are facing; Schilling and Wake are both likely to spend some time on the DL, and Lester and Buchholz only pitched a combined 85.2 innings this year. A six day rest will keep arms fresher longer.

On the other hand, it will be hard for any pitcher to win 20 plus games in only 27 starts. Noah Lowry won 14 in in 26 starts, which was the best for any pitcher with 27 or fewer starts in 2007. Six pitchers with 14 wins gives you a total of 84, which would be nice, but even with all that rest, there aren't going to be six starters with 14 wins on any team no matter how goodit is. And why wouldn't you want Josh Beckett out there as much as possible?

Of course, there is still the possibility of a trade, but the all buzz involves more pitchers (Haren and Santana to name two). Theo can't be dumb enough to trade both Lester and Buchholz, which would still leaves us six starters.

November 6, 2007

Biblical Analogy Mashup: The Fatted Cow Returns

So Schill is still a Red Sock.

And they are going to pay him $3 million dollars to not get fat(ter).

Guess he's given up on winning another Cy Young a la Roger Clemens.

November 5, 2007

Talent Machines

I've been meaning to post this for a few days. Steve Treder at the Hardball Times has been doing a long-term study of the value produced by each team's farm system, dating back to World War II. He just finished the last few years of the study, posted here.

The study relies on Win Shares: he basically tallies up Win Shares for each ML player (minimum 5 WS per year), and credits those figures to the farm system that drafted and developed them.

So for example, Seattle gets all the credit for Alex Rodriguez's production since they originally signed and developed him, even though he's played for Texas and some other team, in addition to the Mariners. On the other hand, they don't get credit for Ichiro, who developed outside their system (just like the Yankees don't get credit for Joe DiMaggio, for the same reason).

It's a pretty neat to see how different teams' farm systems have improved and declined over the decades. What's it tell us about the Chin Music Troika?

Well, first off, the Yankees were the clear beasts of the trio from World War II up until the mid-'60s (a period of time that featured something like 10 World Series victories for them, with dudes like Yogi and Mantle playing the bulk of their careers). That's likely due to the resources they were able to bring to bear in both scouting and internal development.

Meanwhile, the Sox appear to be tied (with Cleveland) for the second-most-productive farm system over that period, while Oakland struggled towards the bottom.

But everything changed quickly, as the Yankee farm system suddenly crashed and burned in the mid-'60s, and stayed crappy up until the early '90s (thank you, Steinbrenner). Boston improved accordingly; and Oakland became really productive for about 15 years, up until the early '80s (which would help explain their three-peat with Reggie and Catfish in the early '70s).

Oakland's production then dipped in the early-'80s for a time, and Boston's farm system then saw its own period of prolonged dominant production from the late '70s throughout the '80s (Clemens and Boggs were two big reasons for this, I assume, along with Jim Rice?).

Over the past 15 years in the AL West, it looks like the production has jumped around quite a bit from year-to-year. But I think you can say that Oakland's former farmhands (Hudson, Tejada) have been more productive than those of any other team in the division. They're followed closely by Seattle (how much of that is from Johnson, ARod, and Griffey I wonder?), with Texas and Anaheim lagging behind.

The AL East is interesting. The Yankees of Jeter, Bernie and Soriano have been just a step ahead of the Red Sox for quite some time, up until last year. I assume Pedroia & company had something to do with that, along with Hanley's monster year in the NL (and the continued dominance of David Eckstein. Kidding.)

But you know who's had the best talent machine in the division? Toronto. They get credit for developing the most productive major-leaguers for all but three years since the strike (note, this is after they won those two titles). Toronto gets the credit for: Delgado, Jeff Kent, Jimmy Key, Shawn Green, Michael Young, John Olerud, Roy Halladay, Chris Carpenter's good few years, and David Wells, among others.

Who'da thunk?

November 1, 2007

Into the Wild

MLB has a contest up on its site to see who can guess the where the big name free agents will end up. The prize is tickets to opening day.

Right now, I have no idea where any of these folks will wind up. Five years ago, I would have said they'd all be Yankees by April, but this year has a certain mystery to it.